Search Engine Optimization

I spoke on The Future of Search on Tuesday at Search Engine Strategies San Jose. It was a fun panel. Not only did I get to pontificate (which I love to do), but I also got to be really ‘out there’ — not my typical presentation style, which is typically pretty geeky and focused on the really practical, actionable stuff. I was talking about such things as the Law of Accelerating Returns, quantum computing, the LUI (Linguistic User Interface), AI (as in “autonomous intelligence” rather than the more innocuous “artificial intelligence”), and the Singularity (I’m a big fan of Ray Kurzweil, by the way). If I had had time, I would launched into a discussion of one of my personal favorite future technologies: utility fog.

Here are some of my favorite websites on such topics:

• KurzweilAI.net
• Singularity University
• Acceleration Studies Foundation
• Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
• Institute for the Future

What does all this have to do with search? A lot. Search is going to be nothing like what we envision it today. That’s because we aren’t thinking in exponential terms. We as humans tend to extrapolate forward linearly, because our brains think linearly. When you look forward towards the horizon, do you think about how we’re on a giant curved sphere, or do you think of it as a long straight (flat) drive ahead until you reach your destination? Right, my point exactly. So when we think of all the progress Google (or technology in general) has made in the last 5 years, it’s only natural to think about the next 5 years as an extrapolation of the past 5. But the Law of Accelerating Returns says that technology is evolving at a faster and faster clip, i.e. on an exponential curve.

How can the Law of Accelerating Returns hold true? Because it takes into account such certainties as Moore’s Law and Metcalf’s Law and the unwavering predictability of these laws mean that a very specific subset of things can be forecasted with great accuracy.

So the folks who think that in 10 years teenagers are still going to be exercising their thumbs all day TXTing are mistaken. The LUI will be how we interact with computing devices — interfacing with our computers by conversing with a simulated personality, rather than clacking away at keyboards and keypads. It’s so much more efficient, considering how many words per minute we speak versus type. The advent of the LUI will be as much of a paradigm shift in computing as the shift from DOS prompts to the Windows GUI (graphical user interface). Welcome to a world of ubiquitous computing where we will be wandering around, “computing” with our voice, rather than tethered to a desktop computer, screen, keyboard and mouse. Makes you think a bit differently about “mobile search“, doesn’t it?

Marry that vision with one of swarms of Utility Fog that can make utterly lifelike representations of other people, creatures, and objects in an environment not that unlike Gene Roddenberry’s vision of the Star Trek holodeck. This could allow computers to take a tangible form when you are interfacing with them (via voice or movement). And it could allow you to interact with all five senses when “video conferencing” with far-away loved ones; it would be as if the person were really there beside you! Talk about “total immersion”! Oh, and utility fog will allow us to hover and fly around too.

Continuing advances in AI will bring us, in the 2020’s, to a decade where the intelligence of a computer will exceed the intelligence of a human being. Computers will be able to compose symphonies, paint masterpieces, fall in love, etc.

Somehow I don’t think Google will, for too much longer, be basing its importance, authority and trust algorithms on the link graph. I think they will develop an artificial intelligence “expert system” that can use its own judgment in determining whether a web page or website is spammy.

Fun times ahead!

As a blogger I can’t tell you how many spammy link requests from “link builders” that I get on an ongoing basis. It’s just way too many. You certainly don’t want to hire the kind of link building firm that sends out such spam link requests using cheap third-world labor. It’s these same sorts of firms responsible for a big percentage of the useless keyword-rich link-containing comments posted all over the blogosphere.

On one end of the link builder spectrum you have the solo operator guru, somebody of the caliber of Eric Ward, to the other end of the spectrum — those link building sweatshops out of India that will spam the hell out of the blogosphere and of webmasters’ email inboxes on your behalf. You’ll want to hire a consultant or firm more towards the former rather than the latter (obviously). At least if you wish to be working with a top-notch link building outsource partner, one that’s really going to “do the business” for you, and not spam in the process.

A good SEO firm should also be a good link building firm but this is not always the case. In fact, it is not often the case. On-page SEO and technical tweaks like rewrites and redirects are a very different animal from the outside-the-box thinking and unbridled creativity required for link building, and link baiting in particular.

A great example of such creativity is the business cards for life contest that we at Netconcepts dreamed up for our client Overnight Prints that involved the Internet celebrity and Technorati Top 100 blogger Jeremy Schoemaker. The contest was to design Jeremy’s business card, with Jeremy serving as the ultimate judge. (Here’s the winning entry, btw. It’s one sweet business card.)

Another great example (not sure which consultancy is behind this one) is A&E’s “Hammer Pants” flash mob stunt:

What are some things to look for when hiring a link building consultant or agency? Here are a few:

• examples of creative, out-of-the-box thinking (as already explained above)
• demonstrable success with link bait being well-received by social news and social bookmarking communities
• the tools necessary to do the job well (e.g. LinkScape, Raven, BuzzStream, SQUID, Enquisite, Internet Marketing Ninjas, SEO Book tools like the Hub Finder, etc.)
• happy customer references
• a good reputation in the industry (as judged by mentions on SEO blogs, forums etc.)
• ideally, evidence of thought leadership (e.g. conference speaking, magazine articles, quotes in mainstream media, a great blog…)

Plus I asked the link mensch himself, Eric Ward, to chime in with some more pointers, which he did. According to Eric, you should ensure that you…

• are given a rationale as to why they want to pursue any given target
• have final approval on every target site they contact
• have final approval before you agree to link back or pay for a link
• are provided a stated deliverable and you have agreed to it
• get an expert to review the contract, like me or Stephan. (Paying a few hundred bucks for a deliverable review might be the wisest money you can spend.)
• are given at least monthly reports of progress

In my most recent Search Engine Land article I wrote about tracking ROI and cost-justifying link building initiatives. It may be helpful to incorporate such metrics into an engagement.

Remember that this is much more like hiring a PR firm than an ad agency. PR firms (and link builders) can influence — but not control — outcomes. Ad agencies can control the number of brand impressions just by simply spending more dollars.

Good luck!